Nigeria as an oil-based economy earns most of its income through exporting crude oil.
OPEC countries are the largest producers of crude oil in the world, pegging its crude allocation to 81 percent (1,213.4 billion barrels) while non-OPEC countries supply just 19 percent (279.2 billion). This explains why OPEC is powerful and why the world depends on the cartel to achieve the oil cut deal in other to push up the already dwindling prices.
Among OPEC’s 13-members, Nigeria has the second largest population of 183 million as at 2015. Indonesia has the largest with 255 million as at 2015, according to data obtained from OPEC.
Algeria has 39 million, Angola 25 million, Ecuador 16 million, IR Iran 78 million, Iraq 36 million, Kuwait 4million, Libya 6 million, Qatar 2 million, Saudi Arabia 31 million, United Arab Emirates 9 million, and Venezuela with 30 million- as at 2015.
As at 2015 too, Nigeria had the 3rd highest GDP oil market price of $485 million. Saudi Arabia came tops with $653 million, while came 2nd with $388 million.
Checking the ranking of each country by its proven natural gas reserve as at 2015 again, Nigeria had the 6th largest reserve of over 6 billion metric tons. Indonesia came tops with 775 billion, Qatar 2nd with 24 billion.
Other countries include Algeria 5 billion, Angola with 308 million, Ecuador 10 million, Iran with 500 million, Iraq with 3 billion, Kuwait with 2 billion, Libya 2 billion, Saudi Arabia 9 billion, United Arab Emirates 6 billion, and Venezuela ties with Nigeria with 6 billion.
In terms of crude reserve, Nigeria as at 2015, had 37 million barrels, Algeria 12 million barrels, Angola 10 million, Ecuador 8 million, Indonesia 3 million, Iran 158 million, Iraq 143 million, Kuwait 102 million, Qatar 25 million, Saudi Arabia 266 million, United Arab Emirates 99 million, and Venezuela 301 million.
According to available data from OPEC, Nigeria’s OPEC crude oil quota spiraled downwards from 1,300 barrels per day in 1982 down below 50 barrels per day at the millennium. The reason for the drop could not be ascertained.
But for attacks on Nigeria’s oil and gas pipelines in the Niger Delta, the country produces between 2.1 million b/d to 2.8 million b/d. However, the attacks by oil militants forced its production to an all-time low of 1.4 million per day earlier in the year. The country currently produces 1.6 million b/d.
However, Petroleum Minister, Ibe Kachikwu, said Nigeria’s oil production will reach an old-time record of 2.1 million barrels per day by January, 2017.
The Buhari administration took over office in May 2015 and as at December, oil militants, Niger Delta Avengers in the Niger Delta did not commence their deadly operations until about February 2016. In other words, the only occurrence that could have led to crash in its supply quota to OPEC happened in December 2015 when oil prices started dwindling at the international market. What then could have be responsible for Nigeria’s quota losses before February 2015? Except for 2009 during the Goodluck Jonathan’s administration when prices first crashed and OPEC had to agree on a cut deal.
What could have been responsible for the drop could also be security issues during the Obasanjo democratic administration when the Militants for Niger Delta Emancipation, MEND sprang up.
Figures obtained showed that Nigeria, as at April 1982 to October 1986, maintained a stable quota of 1300 barrels per day.
By November to December 1986, its quota increased to 1,304 b/b.
By January to June 1987, its quota dropped to 1,238.
It increased to 1,301 by July 1987 to December 1988.
The country was given more allocation of 1,355 in January 1989 towards June 1989.
Then from April 1982– Mar 1983, Nigeria’s allocation kept growing. It got a total of 1,428 barrels per day within the period.
By April 1983– October 1984, 1,501 b/d, November 1984– August 1986, 1,611 b/d, September 1986– October 1986, 1,840 b/d.
However by November 1986 to December 1986, for whatever reason, there was No Distribution, ND by OPEC so Nigeria got zero allocation.
By January in the next year 1987– June 1987, the country was again allocated the total supply of 1,751 barrels per day.
Again between July 1987 and December 1987, OPEC again had an ND, reason not disclosed.
However at the 104th Meeting (Extraordinary) of the OPEC Conference, March 30, 1998. Data reflect temporary production cuts from OPEC excluding Iraq production in February 1998 as reported by selected secondary sources.
Nigeria again resumed with a quota of 1,857 barrels per day by January 1988 to December 1988.
By January 1989 to June 1989, the country’s quota dropped to 1,780 b/d.
Angola joined OPEC in January 2007; Ecuador suspended its membership from December 1992 to October 2007. Indonesia suspended its membership in January 2009, but this was reactivated from January 1, 2016.
Between April 1998– June 1998, Nigeria got a common 125b/d. July 1998– March 1999 the country had 2,033 b/d, while April 1999– March 2000, Nigeria got 1,885 b/d, according to data gathered.
On September 10–11, 2000; an including additional 500,000 b/d (price band mechanism) was announced by the OPEC.
Between April 2000– June 2000, Nigeria got 2,033 b/d, July 2000– September 2000, 2,091 b/d, October 1 2000– October 30 2000, 2,157 b/d, October 31 2000 –January 2001, 2,198 b/d and February 2001– Mar 2001, 2,075 b/d.
April 2001– August 2001, 1,993 b/d, September 2001– December 2001, 1,911 b/d, January 2002– December 2002, 1,787 b/d, Jan 2003, 1,894 b/d, February 2003– May 2003, 2,018 b/d, while in June 2003– October 2003, 2,092 b/d.
Between November 2003– March 2004, 2,018 b/d, April 2004– June 2004, 1,936 b/d, July 2004, 2,101 b/d, August 2004– October 2004, 2,142 b/d and November 1, 2004– March 16, 2005, 2,224 b/d.
Nigeria’s lowest point in terms of its OPEC quota came during February 2007 with the lowest of 42 b/d, including five consecutive NDs (No Distribution).
Between March 17, 2005– June 30, 2005, Nigeria got 2,265 b/d. July 2005– October 2006, 2,306 b/d, November 2006– January 2007, just 100 b/d, February 2007– October 2007, the lowest 42 b/d, November 2007– December 2007, an ND, January 2008– September 2008, an ND, October 2008, an ND, November 2008– December 2008, 113 b/d, January 2009– December 2011, an ND and between January 2012– December 2015, OPEC again had a No Distribution deal.
As at 2015
As at 2015, there was a general No Distribution (ND) however, the last time there was distribution of quota in 2008, Algeria got 71, 000 barrels, Angola 99 thousand, Ecuador 27 thousand, Indonesia 16 thousand, IR Iran 199 thousand, Iraq was still under sanction, Kuwait 132 thousand, Libya 89 thousand, Nigeria 113 thousand, Qatar 43 thousand, Saudi Arabia 466 thousand, United Arab Emirates 134 thousand and Venezuela 129 thousand.
After the November production cut agreement by OPEC and non-OPEC, Indonesia one of OPEC’s countries with the lowest quota, exited the group over oil production cut.
The country’s decision came less than a year after rejoining the Group. As a net oil importer, Indonesia said it could not agree to OPEC’s production cuts.
Analysts have argued that the suspension could be a setback for Indonesia, OPEC’s only East Asian member had hoped to benefit from being closer to OPEC countries when it reactivated its membership at the start of the 2016.
OPEC asked Indonesia to cut oil production by about 37,000 barrels per day (bpd), or about 5 percent of its output. However, according to Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Ignasius Jonan, who attended the Vienna meeting, its cut quota would dent its already slipping oil rent.
According to him, the only reduction Indonesia could accept was a cut of 5,000 bpd, which had been approved in the country’s 2017 budget.
Thankfully, Nigeria was exempted from making a cut due to the challenges in the Niger Delta which had slowed production and export. Yet, aside that Nigeria had excelled in terms of grooming candidates who had led the cartel and is still leading the cartel, analysts have argued what other benefits the country had gained as member of the cartel.
In terms of Nigeria’s population, proven oil and gas reserves and GDP market price, should not the country be among those with the highest quotas in OPEC?