Analysts at FSDH Research have predicted that Nigeria inflation rate for the month of April 2019 will drop further to 11.23per cent from 11.25 per cent recorded in March 2019.
In its latest report, FSDH stated that the drop in the inflation rate was due to the fact that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased more slowly in April 2019 than it increased in the corresponding period of last year.
They however noted that the growth is fragile and highly susceptible to developments in the international market.
FSDH Research pointed out that the bad news, however, is that the month-on-month increase in April 2019 was the fastest increase recorded since October 2018. Given the consistent drop in the inflation rate since January 2019, will the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) drop the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) further when meeting on 20-21 May 2019?
According to latest report from FSDH, throughout the last two years, the inflation rate peaked at 18.72 per cent in January 2017. The harsh macroeconomic environment, which put pressure on the value of the Naira was responsible for the hike.
“The Nigerian economy has recorded relative improvements in the last few months. The increase in the price of crude oil above US$70/b, relative accretion to the external reserves above US$44billion, stability in the value of the currency, successful conduct of general elections and efforts to improve infrastructure in the country are responsible for the improvement in the economy.”
Meanwhile, the price monitor that FSDH Research conducted on food and non-food items shows that prices moved in an upward direction in April 2019 compared with March 2019. A cursory look at the prices of food items in the international market also suggests that prices of most items increased in April compared with March.
On the other hand, the value of the Naira appreciated marginally against the Dollar in April. This marginal appreciation in the value of Naira in April, coupled with the increase in the prices of food items in the international market may have reduced some of the pressure on the prices of consumer items in Nigeria.

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